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United States · Economy desk · Official prints

Jobs, inflation, and the Fed

The last official prints: nonfarm payrolls minus 23,000 in July, consumer prices up 3.4 percent over the year, and the federal funds target still 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Each figure is the agency release, not a forecast.

Nonfarm payrolls
-23,000July 2026BLS Employment Situation
CPI-U, 12 months
+3.4%July 2026BLS Consumer Price Index
Federal funds target
3.50 to 3.75%July 28 and 29, 2026FOMC statement
Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in July

Jobs

The July print

Thousands of jobs, seasonally adjusted. The line is the prior 12-month average BLS published with the July print. No forecast bar.
Monthly nonfarm payroll change, thousands
MonthChange
May, revised63
June, revised20
July-23
Prior 12-month average34

-23 thousand in July against a 34 thousand average over the prior 12 months. BLS Employment Situation

Inflation

Against the 2% goal

12-month percent change. The vertical mark is the Federal Reserve 2 percent longer-run inflation goal. It is not a nowcast of the next print.
Twelve-month inflation prints and the 2 percent goal
SeriesPercent
CPI-U3.4
CPI less food and energy2.5
PCE3.7
PCE less food and energy3.3
Longer-run inflation goal2

CPI through July. PCE through June. Energy and gasoline sit far off this scale, so they stay in the notes. How we treat prints

The Fed

The last vote

Target range 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Last vote 9 to 3, hold. The 2 percent mark is the inflation goal, not a path for the funds rate.
Federal funds target range and inflation goal
Range low3.5
Range high3.75
Inflation goal2
Last vote9 to 3, hold

Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan preferred a quarter-point rise. Next sitting Sep 15, 2026, with projections. July 29 statement

Household and establishment surveys

Jobs

One Employment Situation release. Two surveys. We do not blend them into a private jobs index.

July 2026

Nonfarm payrolls

-23,000

BLS says both payrolls and the unemployment rate changed little in July. Local government education fell 50,000. Retail trade fell 19,000. Health care rose 22,000. May and June combined are 103,000 lower than first reported.

BLS Employment Situation

July 2026

Unemployment rate

4.1%

6.9 million people were unemployed. The labor force participation rate was 61.4 percent. The employment-population ratio was 58.9 percent.

BLS Employment Situation

CPI and PCE

Inflation

BLS prices paid by urban consumers. BEA prices paid for what households actually buy. Separate prints.

July 2026

CPI-U, 12 months

+3.4%

All items rose 0.1 percent in July after falling 0.4 percent in June. The 12-month rate was 3.5 percent through June. Shelter accounted for about two-thirds of the July rise.

BLS Consumer Price Index

July 2026

CPI less food and energy

+2.5%

The index rose 0.2 percent in July after no monthly change in June. The 12-month rate was 2.6 percent through June.

BLS Consumer Price Index

June 2026

PCE price index, 12 months

+3.7%

The index fell 0.1 percent from May. Less food and energy it rose 0.1 percent on the month and 3.3 percent over the year. The Federal Reserve uses this family of indexes for its 2 percent longer-run goal.

BEA Personal Income and Outlays

Federal Open Market Committee

The Fed

The last vote and the next sitting. We do not publish hike or cut odds, funds futures, or a private path. Why

July 28 and 29, 2026

Federal funds target

3.50 to 3.75%

The Committee held the range on a 9 to 3 vote. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan preferred a quarter-point rise. Chair Kevin Warsh. The 2 percent mark on this desk is the inflation goal, not a funds-rate forecast.

Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan preferred a quarter-point rise.

Next meeting Sep 15, 2026. That sitting includes a Summary of Economic Projections.

FOMC statement · Meeting calendar

5 items · newest first

Releases

The official wire, in time order. RSS

BLS Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in July

CPI-U was up 3.4 percent over the year, down from 3.5 percent through June. Energy was up 14.7 percent over the year, gasoline 24.6 percent. Food was up 3.0 percent. The July index level was 333.918 (1982-84=100).

BLS Consumer Price Index

BLS Employment Situation

Payrolls fell 23,000 in July

BLS said both nonfarm payrolls and the 4.1 percent unemployment rate changed little. Average hourly earnings were $37.62, up 2 cents on the month and 3.2 percent over the year. The August report is due September 4.

BLS Employment Situation

BEA Personal Income and Outlays

PCE prices fell 0.1 percent in June

The index was up 3.7 percent from a year earlier. Less food and energy it rose 0.1 percent on the month and 3.3 percent over the year. Personal income rose $54.9 billion. The personal saving rate was 2.7 percent.

BEA Personal Income and Outlays
  1. BEA GDP advance estimate

    Real GDP rose 1.5 percent in the second quarter

    Advance estimate, annual rate. First quarter growth was 2.1 percent. BEA said consumer spending, investment, and exports rose, while government spending fell.

    BEA GDP advance estimate
  2. FOMC statement

    The Fed held 3.50 to 3.75 percent

    The Committee voted 9 to 3 to keep the target range. The statement said inflation remains elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, in part from energy and other supply shocks. Next sitting is September 15 and 16.

    FOMC statement

15 still ahead

Dates

Agency calendars only. A date here is a scheduled release, not a prediction of the number.

  2. Income

    July PCE and Q2 GDP second estimate

    Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026, and the second GDP estimate, both at 8:30 a.m. ET.

    BEA news release schedule

  3. Benchmark

    CES preliminary benchmark revision

    BLS publishes the preliminary March 2026 establishment-survey benchmark at 10:00 a.m. ET. Official monthly estimates do not change on this day.

    BLS Employment Situation

  6. Fed

    FOMC meeting, September 15 and 16

    Two-day meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference.

    FOMC meeting calendars

  10. Fed

    FOMC meeting, October 27 and 28

    Two-day meeting. No Summary of Economic Projections on this sitting.

    FOMC meeting calendars

  14. Fed

    FOMC meeting, December 8 and 9

    Two-day meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections.

    FOMC meeting calendars