Economy
Official economic releases and a separate source-linked record of tariffs, sanctions, trade, and other consequential policy changes. No forecasts or market odds. How this desk works
Updates paused since Aug 24, 2026. 12 releases have come out since, including the August Employment Situation (Sep 4), the August Consumer Price Index (Sep 11), and the FOMC meeting of September 15 and 16. See those dates
BLS said rates were stable in 40 states and the District of Columbia. Payroll employment rose in Maryland by 11,700, fell in New Jersey by 25,600, and changed little elsewhere. South Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate at 2.0 percent; the District of Columbia had the highest at 5.9 percent. The national rate remained 4.1 percent.
BLS said 53.8 percent of people ages 16 to 24 were employed in July, little changed from 53.1 percent a year earlier. The youth unemployment rate was 9.1 percent, down from 10.8 percent. These annual summer figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Most participants supported keeping the federal funds target at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, while several favored a quarter-point increase. Many said tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline. Most expected inflation to ease through year-end, but many saw a risk that it would remain elevated, especially if the Middle East conflict prolonged supply disruptions.
EIA put commercial crude inventories at 428.8 million barrels for the week ended August 14, matching the five-year seasonal average. Crude imports fell by 746,000 barrels a day, while distillate stocks fell 1.5 million barrels and stood about 13 percent below their five-year average. The next report is due August 26.
The Fed said manufacturing also rose 0.2 percent. Mining rose 0.2 percent and utilities 0.5 percent. Total IP was 1.1 percent above a year earlier at 103.0 percent of its 2017 average. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.3 percent. June IP was revised to +0.3 percent from +0.1 percent. The August report is due September 18.
BLS said lower fuel import prices more than offset higher nonfuel import prices. Export prices fell 1.3 percent. Over the 12 months ended July, import prices rose 5.9 percent and export prices rose 8.2 percent. The August report is due September 16.
The seasonally adjusted index was unchanged after a 0.1 percent decline in June. On an unadjusted basis final demand rose 4.7 percent over the 12 months ended July. Goods fell 0.7 percent on the month. Services rose 0.2 percent. The August report is due September 10.
CPI-U was up 3.4 percent over the year, down from 3.5 percent through June. Energy was up 14.7 percent over the year, gasoline 24.6 percent. Food was up 3.0 percent. The July index level was 333.918 (1982-84=100).
BLS said both nonfarm payrolls and the 4.1 percent unemployment rate changed little. Average hourly earnings were $37.62, up 2 cents on the month and 3.2 percent over the year. The August report is due September 4.
The openings rate was 4.4 percent. Hires were unchanged at 5.3 million. Total separations changed little at 5.4 million, with quits at 3.2 million and layoffs and discharges at 1.8 million. The July report is due September 1.
The index was up 3.7 percent from a year earlier. Less food and energy it rose 0.1 percent on the month and 3.3 percent over the year. Personal income rose $54.9 billion. The personal saving rate was 2.7 percent.
Advance estimate, annual rate. First quarter growth was 2.1 percent. BEA said consumer spending, investment, and exports rose, while government spending fell.
The Committee voted 9 to 3 to keep the target range. The statement said inflation remains elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, in part from energy and other supply shocks. Next sitting is September 15 and 16.
No policy records yet. Tariffs, sanctions, trade actions, and other policy changes will appear here with their legal status, who is affected, and their sources.
Scheduled releases from agency calendars. A date is not a prediction of the number.
Jobs
September Employment Situation
Fed minutes
FOMC minutes of September 15 and 16
Prices
September Consumer Price Index
Prices
September Producer Price Index
Output
September Industrial Production
Fed
FOMC meeting, October 27 and 28
Income and GDP
September PCE and Q3 GDP advance
Jobs
September Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Jobs
October Employment Situation
Prices
October Consumer Price Index
Prices
October Producer Price Index
Output
October Industrial Production
Fed minutes
FOMC minutes of October 27 and 28
Income and GDP
October PCE and Q3 GDP second estimate
Jobs
October Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Jobs
November Employment Situation
Fed
FOMC meeting, December 8 and 9
Prices
November Consumer Price Index
Prices
November Producer Price Index
Output
November Industrial Production
Income and GDP
November PCE and Q3 GDP third estimate
Fed minutes
FOMC minutes of December 8 and 9
These dates passed after the Aug 24, 2026 check. Their figures are not on this page yet.
Energy
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Income and GDP
July PCE and Q2 GDP second estimate
Benchmark
CES preliminary benchmark revision
Jobs
July Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Jobs
August Employment Situation
Prices
August Producer Price Index
Prices
August Consumer Price Index
Fed
FOMC meeting, September 15 and 16
Prices
August Import and Export Price Indexes
Output
August Industrial Production
Jobs
August Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Income and GDP
August PCE and Q2 GDP third estimate
The Employment Situation and job-openings (JOLTS) figures stay separate, each linked to its BLS release.
−23,000
July 2026
BLS says both payrolls and the unemployment rate changed little in July. Local government education fell 50,000. Retail trade fell 19,000. Health care rose 22,000. May and June combined are 103,000 lower than first reported.
Released · BLS Employment Situation
4.1%
July 2026
6.9 million people were unemployed. The labor force participation rate was 61.4 percent. The employment-population ratio was 58.9 percent.
Released · BLS Employment Situation
7.4 million
June 2026
BLS said openings were little changed at 7.4 million in June, a 4.4 percent rate. Hires were unchanged at 5.3 million. Total separations changed little at 5.4 million. May openings were revised down 57,000 to 7.5 million.
Released · BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Consumer prices, producer prices, and PCE measure different parts of inflation. Each release stays separate.
+3.4%
July 2026
All items rose 0.1 percent in July after falling 0.4 percent in June. The 12-month rate was 3.5 percent through June. Shelter accounted for about two-thirds of the July rise.
Released · BLS Consumer Price Index
+2.5%
July 2026
The index rose 0.2 percent in July after no monthly change in June. The 12-month rate was 2.6 percent through June.
Released · BLS Consumer Price Index
+4.7%
July 2026
Final demand was unchanged in July, seasonally adjusted, after a 0.1 percent decline in June. On an unadjusted basis the index rose 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended July. Goods fell 0.7 percent. Services rose 0.2 percent.
Released · BLS Producer Price Index
+3.7%
June 2026
The index fell 0.1 percent from May. Less food and energy it rose 0.1 percent on the month and 3.3 percent over the year. The Federal Reserve uses this family of indexes for its 2 percent longer-run goal.
Released · BEA Personal Income and Outlays
+5.9%
July 2026
Import prices fell 0.4 percent in July after a 0.3 percent decline in June. Fuel imports fell 7.2 percent. Nonfuel imports rose 0.4 percent. Over the year ended July, import prices rose 5.9 percent.
Released · BLS Import and Export Price Indexes
+8.2%
July 2026
Export prices fell 1.3 percent in July after a 0.7 percent decline in June. Agricultural exports rose 1.0 percent. Nonagricultural exports fell 1.5 percent. Over the year ended July, export prices rose 8.2 percent.
Released · BLS Import and Export Price Indexes
+0.2%
July 2026
The Fed said total IP and manufacturing each grew 0.2 percent in July after 0.3 percent in June. Mining rose 0.2 percent. Utilities rose 0.5 percent. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts rose 0.4 percent. The July index was 103.0 percent of its 2017 average, 1.1 percent above a year earlier. June was revised up to +0.3 percent from +0.1 percent.
Released · Federal Reserve G.17
76.3%
July 2026
The operating rate edged up from 76.2 percent in June. That is 3.1 percentage points below the 1972-2025 average. Manufacturing utilization was 76.0 percent. Mining was 86.1 percent. Utilities were 70.0 percent.
Released · Federal Reserve G.17
+1.5%
Second quarter 2026
Annual rate, April through June. First quarter real GDP was +2.1 percent. BEA's later estimates for the quarter, from August 26 on, are not reflected here yet.
Released · BEA GDP advance estimate
The last decision and the next sitting. We do not publish rate odds, funds futures, or a private path. Why
3.50 to 3.75%
July 28 and 29, 2026
The Committee held the range on a 9 to 3 vote. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan preferred a quarter-point rise. Chair Kevin Warsh. The 2 percent mark on this desk is the inflation goal, not a funds-rate forecast.
Announced · FOMC statement
The committee was scheduled to meet on Sep 15, 2026. That decision is not on this page yet. The following meeting on the calendar starts Oct 27, 2026.
The Committee said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.
Source: FOMC statement
The SEP is FOMC participants' own projections, not this desk's forecast or a market-based rate path. Prints and medians use different vintages. A monthly U-3 rate is not a Q4 average. A 12-month PCE print is not a Q4-over-Q4 projection.
| Measure | Latest figure | FOMC median |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment | 4.1%July U-3, BLS | 4.3%2026 Q4 average, June SEP median |
| PCE inflation | +3.7%12 months ended June, BEA | 3.6%2026 Q4 over Q4, June SEP median |
| Real GDP | +1.5%Q2 2026 advance, annual rate, BEA | 2.2%2026 Q4 over Q4, June SEP median |
| Federal funds | 3.50 to 3.75%Target range, July 29 statement | 3.8%End-2026 midpoint, June SEP median |