Shadow Hormuz flows get harder numbers

Guardian reporting, citing Lloyd's List and Kpler, says dark tanker runs and ship-to-ship transfers are moving more Gulf crude than visible traffic alone shows. The same evidence leaves normal traffic far off, with the 100 million-barrel claim still hard to fully verify.

Why this matters. This narrows the receipt gap behind the oil-price relief: hidden flows can soften the market without proving that Hormuz is normally open. The watchpoint is whether a signed deal turns shadow transits into normal AIS tracks, insurer guidance, port notices, and pre-war volumes.