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Iran war

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Wednesday, September 16, 20262 entries

  1. 11:30 PM in Beirut

    Israel strikes towns across south Lebanon as army chief says 'war is not over'

    Israeli forces hit al-Mansouri, Kfar Tebnit, Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Beit Leef, Lebanon's state news agency said. Earlier, army chief Eyal Zamir said on the northern border that troops would keep operating 'deep inside' Lebanon and would not let Hezbollah rebuild: 'The war is not yet over.'

    Why it matters Israel is signalling an open-ended presence in south Lebanon while talks on the June framework are on hold until October.

    Sources: Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2)

  2. 4:48 PM in Muscat

    US officials met Houthi representatives in Oman, Reuters reports

    US officials met Houthi representatives at the US embassy in Muscat last weekend in an Oman-arranged meeting, three sources told Reuters. The Houthis said they had no intention of attacking US vessels, remain committed to their 2025 ceasefire with the US, and would not attack commercial ships except Saudi ones.

    Why it matters The channel explains Vance's remark about direct talks and suggests Washington is trying to wall off US shipping from the Saudi-Houthi war.

    Source: Al Jazeera live blog

Tuesday, September 15, 20267 entries

  1. 9:30 PM in London

    Physical crude tops $130 in Europe as Saudi Arabia cancels Yanbu cargoes

    Some physical crude cargoes in Europe topped $130 a barrel and North Sea Forties rose to $136.75, near April's record, after Saudi Arabia suspended late-September shipments to European buyers because of the Yanbu loading halt, Reuters reported. Brent futures were about $107 earlier in the day.

    Why it matters The gap between physical and futures prices shows the pipeline outage is creating real shortages for refiners, not just a paper risk premium.

    Sources: Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2)

  2. 2:43 PM in New York

    US plans $2.8 billion sale of 40,000 heavy bombs to Israel

    The Trump administration informally notified Congress of a planned $2.8 billion package for Israel of 20,000 2,000-pound Mk84 bombs and 20,000 BLU-117s, mostly paid with US military financing, AP reported; the deal was not final. On Sep 16 the top House Foreign Affairs Democrat, Gregory Meeks, said he would place a hold on it.

    Why it matters The size of the package signals expectations of continued high-tempo Israeli strikes, and it faces a congressional hold over use in Gaza and Lebanon.

    Sources: The Times of Israel, The Times of Israel live blog, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2)

  3. 2:34 PM in New York

    CBO: Iran war has cost $38 billion and drained up to two-thirds of key interceptors

    The Congressional Budget Office estimated the war cost about $38 billion through August, rising about $3 billion a month, mostly from munitions use; it said the US had used half to two-thirds of several key interceptor inventories (Patriot, THAAD, SM-3, SM-6), that restocking could take five years, and that the war would add 0.5 point to inflation in early 2027.

    Why it matters The estimate gives Congress its first official price tag and highlights how interceptor stocks limit how long the US can sustain air defence.

    Sources: The Times of Israel, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2), The Times of Israel live blog

  4. 8:03 PM in Berlin

    Israeli, US and Arab military chiefs met in Germany; Cooper says US won't withdraw

    Military chiefs of Israel, the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Egypt met at a secluded German ski resort last week, where CENTCOM's Adm. Brad Cooper said US forces would not leave the region despite Iranian attacks. Israel and Saudi Arabia, with CENTCOM's help, are discussing how Israel could help counter the Houthi advance, though offensive Israeli action is unlikely; Israeli security officials have urged against striking the Houthis.

    Why it matters It points to quiet military coordination between Israel and Gulf states against Iran's allies, even without formal ties.

    Sources: The Times of Israel, The Times of Israel live blog, Al Jazeera live blog

  5. 12:23 PM in New York

    US energy chief says Saudi pipeline back 'within days', US escorting oil via Hormuz

    Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC he expects the East-West pipeline, which has moved 4 to 5 million barrels a day, to resume within days, and said Saudi Arabia was sending more oil out through Hormuz 'with the United States military' in the meantime. He called the pipeline strikes 'Iran-supported attacks from proxy groups.'

    Why it matters His timeline was far shorter than the three-to-five-week repair estimate officials gave AP a day earlier.

    Sources: The Times of Israel, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2), The Times of Israel live blog

  6. 6:05 PM in Riyadh

    Oil loadings halt at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu after East-West pipeline shutdown

    Oil loadings stopped at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu, shipping sources told Reuters, four days after drones launched from Iraq forced the shutdown of the East-West pipeline that feeds the terminal.

    Why it matters Yanbu had become the kingdom's main export outlet while Hormuz is disrupted; halting it leaves buyers, especially in Asia, short of Saudi crude.

    Sources: Bloomberg, The Times of Israel, Al Jazeera live blog

  7. 5:00 PM in Cairo

    Sisi and Saudi crown prince stress Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea navigation in Cairo talks

    Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met in Cairo and emphasized the need to secure freedom of navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid continuing Houthi attacks.

    Why it matters Coordinated Egyptian-Saudi pressure on Red Sea security could shape whether Gulf states seek an international naval coalition to respond to escalating Houthi strikes on shipping.

    Sources: Times of Israel, Al Jazeera live blog

Monday, September 14, 20268 entries

  1. 7:10 AM in Tehran, Sep 15

    IRGC claims it shot down three US MQ-1 drones and an MQ-9 around Hormuz

    The IRGC said its air defences destroyed an MQ-1 drone west of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and two more on Tuesday, which Mehr said made four MQ-1s downed in recent days, and later claimed an MQ-9 over Qeshm Island at 22:59 GMT. US officials later told CBS News that Iranian forces had downed at least two US MQ-1s in recent days.

    Why it matters The losses, partly confirmed by US officials, show Iran contesting US surveillance flights over the strait.

    Sources: Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2), Al Jazeera live blog (3), Al Jazeera live blog (4), Al Jazeera live blog (5)

  2. 12:15 AM in Tehran, Sep 15

    US destroys two Iranian boats it says tried to seize a Navy drone; Iran says fishermen

    Hormozgan's deputy governor said a drone struck two fishing boats near Kargan port and fishermen were missing. CENTCOM said Iranian small boats had tried to take a US unmanned surface vessel and failed 'after CENTCOM forcefully responded'; Axios, citing US officials, reported a US drone fired two missiles that destroyed both boats and killed everyone aboard.

    Why it matters It was a lethal US-Iran clash at sea over unmanned systems, with Tehran portraying the dead as civilian fishermen.

    Sources: Haaretz, Times of Israel, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2), Stars and Stripes

  3. 3:15 PM in New York

    US sanctions Russia's VTB Bank over Iran sanctions evasion

    The US Treasury sanctioned Russia's state-controlled VTB Bank, which operates in Iran, for involvement in Iranian sanctions evasion and for correspondent relationships with sanctioned Iranian banks, calling it 'among the most comprehensively sanctioned financial institutions in the world.'

    Why it matters Targeting a major Russian bank over Iran sanctions evasion shows Washington widening financial pressure on the Moscow-Tehran sanctions-evasion network that helps fund Iran's war effort.

    Sources: Times of Israel, Al Jazeera live blog, The Times of Israel live blog

  4. 10:42 PM in Tehran

    IRGC says tanker El Gaia hit mines in Hormuz; CENTCOM says Iran struck it earlier

    The IRGC said a supertanker it called 'Algaya' struck naval mines while crossing a restricted zone south of the strait and was engulfed in flames. CENTCOM called the claim false, saying the Panama-flagged El Gaia was disabled by an Iranian missile last month, hit again by an Iranian drone off Oman at the weekend, and was under tow.

    Why it matters Iran is using the incident to advertise its restricted zone, while Washington insists the danger comes from Iranian fire, not mines.

    Sources: Haaretz, Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, gCaptain, Gulf News, Israel National News, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2)

  5. 10:24 PM in Dubai

    Persian Gulf tanker rates top $1 million a day for first time

    The cost of hiring an oil tanker on the industry's benchmark Persian Gulf-to-China route surpassed $1 million a day for the first time, with vessels booked at $1.035 million a day according to the Baltic Exchange in London, as the Iran war leaves too few ships willing to cross the Strait of Hormuz to load cargoes.

    Why it matters The record freight rate is a direct, tradable signal that war-related shipping risk in Hormuz is now pricing into global oil logistics costs, adding pressure on crude supply chains beyond the strait itself.

    Sources: Bloomberg, gCaptain (Bloomberg)

  6. 7:34 PM in Tehran

    Gunmen kill Sunni cleric Molavi Yusef Gorgij in southeastern Iran

    Unidentified gunmen shot and killed senior Sunni cleric Molavi Yusef Gorgij in southeastern Iran; local officials described him as having 'actively fought against divisive elements and Zionism,' according to a Times of Israel live update.

    Why it matters The killing of a pro-government Sunni cleric in Iran's restive southeast points to persistent internal security threats for Tehran even as it wages a wider regional war.

    Sources: Times of Israel, The Times of Israel live blog

  7. 12:03 PM in New York

    Trump says US is 'open' to engaging Iran, which he says wants a deal

    Trump wrote that 'the failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly. I will determine whether or not the U.S.A. will choose to engage – The concept of which we are open to.' He added that countries that did not help restore oil flows through Hormuz 'should and will reimburse the United States.'

    Why it matters It was a shift from Trump's earlier dismissals of talks; Iran's security chief rejected the 'mixed signals' hours later.

    Sources: Times of Israel, RFE/RL via GlobalSecurity.org, Times of Israel (2), Al Jazeera live blog

  8. 11:10 AM in Vienna

    Austria bars Iran's nuclear chief from IAEA conference; Tehran summons envoy

    Austria refused entry to Atomic Energy Organization chief Mohammad Eslami for the IAEA General Conference in Vienna, saying the UN Security Council committee rejected its request for an exemption from his UN travel ban for lack of consensus. Iran summoned Austria's charge d'affaires and blamed US pressure.

    Why it matters Eslami had attended every year since 2021; his exclusion came days after the IAEA board referred Iran to the Security Council.

    Sources: Washington Times, The Times of Israel, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2), Al Jazeera live blog (3)

Sunday, September 13, 202610 entries

  1. 11:14 PM in London

    Brent jumps more than $3 to about $108 as Saudi pipeline stays shut

    Brent crude rose $3.62, or 3.5%, to $108.23 a barrel by 22:14 GMT as trading opened for the week, and WTI rose $3.15 to $103.20, after the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, new Houthi strikes on the kingdom and the collapse of the Iran-Gulf Hormuz meeting. Brent held near $108 on Monday morning.

    Why it matters Losing the Saudi bypass on top of Hormuz leaves few buffers for supply, keeping prices near their September highs.

    Sources: Al Jazeera, FinanceFeeds, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2)

  2. 11:50 PM in Damascus

    Fuel-price protests erupt in Syria amid war-driven price spikes

    Demonstrations broke out in Syria over sharp fuel price increases, with gasoline up roughly 30% and diesel up roughly 40%, a jump attributed to global fuel-price pressure stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.

    Why it matters The protests show the regional energy shock from the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict is now destabilizing a third country's domestic politics, widening spillover beyond the direct combatants.

    Source: Times of Israel

  3. 11:42 PM in Jerusalem

    Israeli official says Lebanese army takes only 'cosmetic' steps against Hezbollah

    A senior Israeli official said the Lebanese army is 'very afraid to move against Hezbollah' and is 'dealing with cosmetics,' leaving the work to the IDF, while Israeli defence officials said Beirut fears a return to civil war.

    Why it matters Israel is building its case that Beirut is not meeting the framework's disarmament terms, a justification for keeping its security zone.

    Sources: The Jerusalem Post, The Jerusalem Post (2)

  4. 11:16 PM in Muscat

    Oman postpones Iran-Gulf meeting on Hormuz shipping route

    Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the regional meeting set for Monday in Salalah had been postponed 'in the interests of consensus.' Iran's Foreign Ministry said the delay was requested by some regional countries, and spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei later said Saudi Arabia had asked for it; Bahrain had already said it would not attend.

    Why it matters The collapse of the only scheduled regional forum on the strait removed a near-term path to restoring shipping.

    Sources: NPR, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2), Al Jazeera live blog (3)

  5. 7:40 PM in Dublin

    Trump says US could 'stay and keep the oil' in Iran, as in Venezuela

    At the Irish Open golf championship, Trump said the US would 'ultimately get out' of Iran 'unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela,' adding that Venezuelan revenue had 'paid for the war many times.' He repeated that the war could end right after the midterms and that gasoline prices would 'drop like a rock.'

    Why it matters Floating control of Iranian oil would expand US war aims well beyond the nuclear issue, with direct implications for global supply.

    Sources: The Jerusalem Post, CNBC, The Jerusalem Post (Reuters)

  6. 2:13 PM in New York

    CENTCOM chief says he is 'not concerned at all' about interceptor stocks

    U.S. Central Command commander Admiral Brad Cooper told CBS News he is "not concerned at all" about shortages of American missile interceptors amid the ongoing conflict with Iran, saying U.S. forces in the region remain "well armed and ready" despite months of sustained Iranian missile and drone fire.

    Why it matters Interceptor stockpile levels determine how long U.S. naval and air defenses in the Gulf can keep absorbing Iranian missile and drone barrages without depleting reserves needed elsewhere.

    Sources: Times of Israel, The Times of Israel live blog

  7. 6:37 PM in Kolkata

    Pezeshkian says Iran and UAE want to 'turn the page' after BRICS meeting

    Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan agreed to 'put aside the past' in talks on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in New Delhi, the highest-level Iran-UAE contact since the war began.

    Why it matters A thaw with the UAE, which Iran has attacked during the war, would split Gulf ranks as Bahrain refuses any meeting with Tehran.

    Sources: Times of Israel, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2), The Times of Israel live blog

  8. 3:16 PM in Riyadh

    Saudi pipeline outage threatens 4% of global oil supply, traders warn

    Buyers and traders told Reuters the East-West pipeline outage could affect about 4% of global oil supply if pumping does not resume within days, with repair estimates of five to six weeks; sources said Saudi Arabia had only five to seven days of oil stored at Yanbu.

    Why it matters With Hormuz largely shut, Yanbu is the kingdom's main export outlet, so a long outage would tighten supply further.

    Sources: Times of Israel Liveblog, The Times of Israel live blog, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2)

  9. 7:53 AM in New York

    NYT: Iranian hardliners launched July Hormuz attacks without leaders' approval

    The New York Times reported that Iranian hardliners, allegedly led by Basij chief Hossein Taeb, launched attacks on Hormuz shipping in early July without authorization from President Masoud Pezeshkian or IRGC chief Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, derailing a US-Iran peace memorandum that had been under negotiation.

    Why it matters The report indicates a fractured Iranian chain of command in which hardline factions can unilaterally sabotage diplomacy, undermining confidence that any future ceasefire or peace framework with Tehran would hold.

    Sources: Times of Israel Liveblog (citing New York Times), The Times of Israel live blog

  10. 12:05 PM in Beirut

    Israel strikes near Nabatieh twice in 30 minutes, shells Ali al-Taher forest

    Israeli forces hit al-Dabsha Hill on the outskirts of Nabatieh twice in under 30 minutes, Lebanon's National News Agency said, as artillery intermittently shelled the Ali al-Taher forest and nearby towns including Zawtar al-Sharqiyah.

    Why it matters Daily strikes around Nabatieh continued after Israel declared its southern security zone complete and Washington delayed Israel-Lebanon talks.

    Sources: Middle East Eye, Anadolu Agency, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2)

Saturday, September 12, 20263 entries

  1. 5:30 AM in Tehran, Sep 13

    Iran-Oman understanding sets basis for Hormuz route but no reopening, Tehran says

    An Iran-Oman understanding sets the basis for eventually reopening the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian protocols but does not provide for an immediate reopening, which depends on the US meeting Tehran's conditions, Tasnim reported; the southern route the US favoured would be closed. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the deal does not 'in any way' signal a reopening.

    Why it matters Iran is using the Oman track to formalise its control of the strait rather than to restore free passage, a gap Gulf states and Washington reject.

    Sources: The Jerusalem Post, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2)

  2. 5:06 AM in Dubai, Sep 13

    UKMTO: vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz catches fire

    A vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile late on Saturday, UKMTO said in warning 134-26; a fire later broke out on board and local authorities helped evacuate the crew.

    Why it matters Each unclaimed strike in the strait keeps transits near record lows and war-risk costs high.

    Sources: The Jerusalem Post, Al Jazeera live blog, Al Jazeera live blog (2), CNBC

  3. 1:45 AM in Tehran, Sep 13

    Pezeshkian says Iran 'won't surrender', dares US to face its military

    President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: 'If Americans are warriors, let them face our valiant military forces. Why wage war on civilian infrastructure, food supplies, and livelihoods?' He accused Washington of denying Iranians water, food and medicine and said: 'Iran won't surrender.'

    Why it matters Tehran's public line hardened as the US blockade and tanker strikes squeezed supplies, lowering odds of near-term talks.

    Sources: Haaretz, Middle East Eye, Times of Israel, The Jerusalem Post, Al Jazeera live blog

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